Warming impacts potential germination of non-native plants on the Antarctic Peninsula

Abstract The Antarctic Peninsula is under pressure from non-native plants and this risk expected to increase climate warming. Establishment subsequent range expansion of depend in part on germination ability conditions, but quantifying these processes has yet receive detailed study. Viability testing plant growth responses simulated soil surface conditions over an annual cycle show that 16 species, including grasses, herbs, rushes a succulent, germinated continued development warming scenario. Thermal requirement (degree day sum) was calculated for each species field soil-temperature recordings indicate satisfied as far south 72° S. Here, we the establishment potential number geographical range, considerably greater than currently suggested by distribution modelling approaches, with important implications assessments along Peninsula.